wildportalsmegaways|深夜狂飙！中国资产，大爆发！日元遭空袭，超级风暴来临？

Chinese assets are "exploding"!

On the evening of May 2, US stocks collectively opened higher. By the end of the day, the three major indexes were up, and the Nasdaq was up 1.Wildportalsmegaways.51%, the S & P 500 is up 0.Wildportalsmegaways.91%, the Dow rose 0.85%.

Chinese stocks performed particularly well, with the Nasdaq china golden dragon index rising more than 6%, reaching a new closing high since the end of November and the biggest one-day gain since the end of July last year.

In addition, the yen has recently begun to depreciate at an accelerated pace. On May 2, the dollar fell below 154 against the yen in a day. As of press time, the dollar was at 153.17 against the yen. The yen fell to 160 yen to the dollar on April 29, a 34-year low. Subsequently, the Japanese government intervened in the exchange rate by buying yen and selling dollars, costing 9 trillion yen twice. Even so, bearish sentiment on the yen remains high because Japan's follow-up actions will be significantly limited after two interventions. Former Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Kuroda said on Thursday that he expected the depreciation of the yen to be "only temporary" and that a weak yen would help boost the corporate profits of Japanese multinationals.

Chinese assets soar late at night

On the evening of May 2, US stocks collectively opened higher. By the close, the three major indexes were up, with the Nasdaq up 1.51%, the S & P 500 up 0.91% and the Dow up 0.85%. Large technology stocks rose generally, Nvidia and Amazon rose more than 3%, Netflix and Apple rose more than 2%, Google rose more than 1%, Microsoft, Meta, Intel and Tesla rose slightly. According to the news, the U.S. Department of Labor released data on May 2 that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending April 27 was 208000, compared with an estimated 215000, compared with an initial figure of 207000 the previous week, with a revised figure of 208000. In addition, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade account deficit in March was 69.4 billion US dollars, with an expected deficit of 69.1 billion US dollars and a previous deficit of 68.9 billion US dollars. Of this total, exports were 257.6 billion US dollars, with a previous value of 263 billion US dollars, and imports were 327 billion US dollars, with a previous value of 331.9 billion US dollars.

Chinese stocks performed strongly, with the Nasdaq china golden dragon index rising more than 6%, a new closing high since the end of November and the biggest one-day gain since the end of July last year.

Xiaopeng Motor and bilibili rose by more than 15%, seashells by more than 12%, Jinshanyun and JD.com by more than 11%, high-way and ideal car by more than 10%, Weibo by more than 8%, Baidu and Haofutuo by more than 7%, and Xilai and Alibaba by more than 6%.

It is worth mentioning that during the daytime on May 2, Hong Kong stocks got off to a good start in May. On the same day, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.50% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.45%.

Japan intervened in the exchange rate twice at a cost of 9 trillion yen

Japan's actions in the foreign exchange market have attracted a lot of attention in recent days. Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market twice a week, with the yen rising rapidly in a few minutes, indicating that Japanese officials have intervened, with the market estimated at 9 trillion yen.

On April 29th, the yen fell to Y160 against the dollar for the first time since 1990. On the same day, under the Japanese official intervention in the foreign exchange market for the first time, the yen rose 1.25% to close at 156.34. On May 1st, the yen rose sharply by 2.05% to close at 154.56. On May 2, the exchange rate of the yen fell below 154 within the day. As of press time, it was 153.17.

Japan conducted its second yen intervention on Thursday May 2, with a size of 3.5 trillion yen, according to Bank of Japan account data. Earlier, Japan may have intervened in the yen on Monday, the first official intervention in the currency market since 2022, with an intervention of about 5.5 trillion yen. The total amount of the two times is about 9 trillion yen.

After two rounds of suspected intervention this week, the Japanese authorities' efforts to keep the yen strong have largely failed. Traders are now preparing for a repeat of the Bank of Japan's intervention during the May 3 and May 6 Golden week holidays. Among them, May 6 will receive particularly close attention. Because the London stock market will also be closed for the holidays, this may reduce market liquidity (which tends to exaggerate exchange rate movements). Japanese authorities are also likely to act if closely watched U. S. jobs data boosted the dollar on Friday and further dragged down the yen.

Former Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Kuroda said on Thursday that he expected the depreciation of the yen to be "only temporary" and that a weak yen would help boost the corporate profits of Japanese multinationals. "WildportalsmegawaysI think the depreciation of the yen is only temporary, but people may have different views. If the depreciation of the yen is only temporary, in this case, the current Japanese share price is partly inflated by the temporary depreciation of the yen, "Mr Kuroda said. Mr Kuroda's comments come as Japanese policy makers are likely to intervene twice this week to prop up the yen after it fell to a 34-year low on Monday. Toshihiko Kuroda saidWildportalsmegaways"I am confident that monetary policy will be normalized in a very cautious manner."

Bearish sentiment against the yen remains high.

The yen has become a victim of widening interest rate spreads between Japan and the US, and even speculation that the Japanese government has intervened to prop up the yen is not enough to fully quell bearishness. With US-Japan interest rate spreads currently high at 3.7 percentage points, foreign exchange intervention cannot reverse the huge interest rate gap unless there are clear signs that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates.

The yen has fallen 8 per cent against the dollar since the Japanese government intervened in September 2022, when the spread between the US and Japan was close to 3 percentage points. At that time, when Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened, the yen remained near the 145.9 level, but since then the yen has depreciated again and exceeded that level. In 2022, Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market three times (September 22, October 21 and October 24), with a capital size of 9 trillion yen.

JPMorgan Chase said that in theory, Japanese officials can use all their foreign exchange reserves to intervene, but in practice it is unlikely; in terms of the frequency of intervention, Japan can only make three series of interventions within six months or at most, otherwise it may lose its "free floating" national status.

　　对日元预测最准的机构表示，虽然日本当局可能努力遏制本币跌势，但日元兑美元可能跌至165。RBC Capital Markets的亚洲外汇策略主管Alvin Tan预计，日元有可能跌至1986年以来的最低水平。日元走弱的主因是美国与日本之间巨大的利差，即使市场对日本央行可能的干预有预期，也不足以完全平息看跌情绪。Tan说，干预只有在得到美国协调配合的情况下才会有效，今年投资者可能会推高美元兑日元，该汇率将再次突破160，达到165左右。

　　值得注意的是，这波日元的快速贬值，源于4月10日。当时，日本首相岸田文雄访美期间，美日领导人发布联合声明称，美日战略合作迎来“新时代”， 要维护“基于法治的国际秩序”。拜登会晤后形容， “这是美日同盟自建立以来最重要的升级”。

　　结果，日本举国正在为岸田文雄这趟高调访美买单。以往，日本出口商偏好日元走弱，但是近两年来，日元贬值幅度明显增大的情况下，日本出口并没有想象中得到提振。

　　除了干预汇率外，日本也可以选择提高利率。印尼已经在4月24日提高了利率。但是对于日本来说，加息仍然是艰难的选择。有资料显示，2023年日本的总债务达到创纪录的1286.45万亿日元，日本国债规模已经占GDP的约260%。在这样的情况下，提升利率会导致日本财政预算中的国债税也相应提高，这会让日本政府面临更大的财政压力。

　　责编：罗晓霞

　　校对：赵燕