coinmaster50spin|家电23年报24年一季报总结：白电出口链表现亮眼 家电板块配置价值凸显

Industry overview: the home appliance sector has substantially outperformed the market in the past 23 years, with the highest cumulative increase in black electricity in the whole year, and better performance in white appliances and export small household appliances in the past 24 years. In 23, the cumulative rise and fall of Shenwan Home Appliance Industry Index / Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is + 3.Coinmaster50spin.8% /-11.7%, the home appliance sector ranks seventh in all industries; over the past 24 years, the rise and fall of the home appliance sector is + 16.7% and 5.6% respectively. The home appliance sector ranks first in all industries and is of great configuration value. In terms of breakdown, the cumulative increase of black household appliances in 23 years (+ 44%) is significantly higher than that of home appliances as a whole, followed by white appliances (+ 28%) and small household appliances (+ 17%). Real estate side: the downward trend is difficult to reverse in the short term, but more attention should be paid to the renewal demand for household appliances.Coinmaster50spinThe increment of. Although 23-year housing completion remained high (23-year-on-year + 17.2%), more forward-looking housing starts (23-20.9%) and sluggish sales data (23-8.2%). The data of new construction, sales and completion of Q1 housing in 24 years compared with the same period last year-28.7%, 23.4%, 21.9%, continued to be under pressure. However, considering that with the increase in the penetration rate of large household appliances, the marginal decline of new demand, the degree of correlation with real estate is lower than the level of previous years, and in February this year, the major policy of trade-in was launched and constantly refined and landed, leading enterprises also put out real money to subsidize, we believe that 24-year sales of large household appliances are more driven by renewal demand. Demand side: domestic sales of large household appliances are sound, optional consumption is still in the doldrums, and the export chain is rising under the lead of overseas replenishment. Domestic sales of large household appliances: according to industry online data, the sales volume of air conditioners in the ice wash in 23 years compared with the same period last year was + 14%. The number of air conditioners was outstanding under the strong mobile sales and the demand for replenishment by enterprises. The 1Q24 boom continued, and the sales of 1Q24 air conditioners / 1-2M24 refrigerators / 1-2M24 washing machines were + 17%, 6% and 1%, respectively. Domestic optional consumption: weak demand, intensified brand competition, weakening dividend margin of Douyin channel. In the subdivision category, the growth rate of water purifier, cleaning appliance and hairdryer is faster. Export chain: since 2H23, the inventory of overseas retailers has gradually returned to a reasonable level, and export OEM enterprises have benefited from the replenishment needs of downstream brands / retailers, and orders have resumed quarter by quarter. 1Q24 empty / 1-2M24 ice / 1-2M24 washing sales are year-on-year + 22% shock "38% shock" 40%, household appliance export boom upward. In terms of independent brands, the product structure of the overseas floor sweeper industry continues to upgrade, and the proportion of national brands going out of the city continues to rise. Cost side: 23 years of sea freight, exchange rate, raw material pressure has been alleviated. 1Q24 copper prices rose month-on-month, but raw material prices are still positive compared with the same period last year; under the depreciation of RMB, the exchange rate is good for export enterprises; and sea freight is affected by the Red Sea factor, which increases in the short term, but shows a marginal downward trend, and the cost is basically controllable. Sub-sector overview of Baidian: the fundamentals of domestic and export are sound, and the income side continues to grow. In the decline in raw material prices, good exchange rate, excellent cost control, plate profit growth exceeds income, the leading performance of strong performance. Looking to the future, the growth of white power enterprises is mainly driven by the trade-in policy and going out to sea. Export of small household appliances: floor sweepers go out to sea to maintain high prosperity, stone science and technology has exceeded expectations due to excellent product power, channel expansion, continuous improvement of brand potential energy, and overseas revenue growth is faster than domestic (overseas profit level is higher). The superimposed exchange rate is favorable, the cost control is strict, and the profit level is up. The income of export contract manufacturing enterprises has recovered quarter by quarter since Q2 in 23 years, and some 1Q24 export contract manufacturing enterprises have exceeded expectations in terms of income and performance under good order volume and favorable exchange rate. Looking forward to the future, we believe that floor sweepers still have β (increased penetration of overseas high-end products) and α (National Brand grabs overseas leading market share) in the past 24 years, and continue to be optimistic about the future trend of the plate; export OEM enterprises should pay attention to the resumption of growth of Q2 orders and the progress of endogenous growth such as expanding products and expanding channels. Domestic small home appliances: 23 since the beginning of the year, the performance of the income end is relatively under pressure, only some small home appliance enterprises take advantage of Douyin channel dividends, showing a rapid growth rate. The gross profit margin has been optimized under the decline in the price of raw materials. The rate of sales expenses of household appliance enterprises that attach importance to the input of Douyin channels often shows a rapid growth. The overall profitability of the sector remained stable. Looking forward to the future, the medium-and long-term pattern of the small home appliance industry is expected to gradually improve, benefiting the leading enterprises with strong product capacity, marketing strength and internal continuous improvement. Investment advice is optimistic about the annual white electricity and export chain plate market. 1) White Power: with high dividend, low valuation and certainty of performance growth. It is recommended to pay attention to Haier Zhijia, Midea, Hisense home appliances. 2) Export chain: independent brands of small household appliances are optimistic about sweeping machines going out to sea, and stone technology is recommended. OEM small household appliances recommend Q2 low income base + Tupin Tuo channel performance growth is expected to speed up the ou Sheng Electric. The risk indicates the risk of demand fluctuation at home and abroad, intensified competition in the industry, raw material price fluctuation, exchange rate fluctuation and tariff fluctuation. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.